Measuring Output Trends Using Actual and Expected Output in UK Manufacturing , 1975 - 1998
نویسندگان
چکیده
Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected output series in eight industrial sectors comprising UK Manufacturing. Through the application of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the VAR model is used to measure trend output in the Manufacturing Sector. This measure is compared with alternative trend measures obtained using aggregate Manufacturing Sector data only.
منابع مشابه
Expectations Formation and Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis of Actual and Expected Output in UK
Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a Vector Autoregressive model of actual and expected output in eight industries in the UK manufacturing sector. No evidence is found with which to reject rationality in the expectations series when measurement error is appropriately taken into account. The VAR analysis illustrates the importance of intersectoral interactions...
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